The power is real - but so are the fears
A new report from Chatham House, a leading London think-tank, argues that the strength and complexity of Iran%u2019s links with Russia and its neighbours underpin its new confidence. Its most striking observation grabbed headlines yesterday, because of the embarrassment it implies for Tony Blair and President Bush. Iran, it says, has been the %u201Cmain beneficiary%u201D of the Iraq war. But that is mainly because there is little competition for that title; few have done well in any sense.
Iran has benefited, the authors argue, because the US removed Saddam Hussein and the Taleban, both hostile to Iran, and nothing much has filled the gap. Iran is now more influential in Iraq than the US.
The authors warn the US from conflict with Iran, lest it force the coalition to quit Iraq abruptly, which they argue it could do. The US%u2019s predicament in Iraq is, they say, a key reason why Iran seems so surefooted in spinning out the nuclear saga to its advantage. Iran is very much a political nightmare. They have ties to so many places and that is making it very difficult to negotiate with them. Russia, for one, has ties with Iran but they are also against Iran obtaining nuclear weapons. I can't even imagine how complex this situation is and I don't envy those who have to somehow find a way to resolve this issue.
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